Grading Final NBA Rookie-Scale Extensions and Forecasts for Continued Talks

Officially opening on July 6 and ending on October 21, the rookie-scale extension window is for the top 30 players selected in the 2021 NBA draft class. Deals have already been locked in by some. Most are still in the works. B/R made a prediction back in March regarding who and for how much. Reviewing how the market has changed and how teams are adapting to the new stringent regulations of the 2023 collective bargaining agreement is appropriate now that the NBA deal mill appears to have stopped ahead of the new season (and to give football its September limelight).

The agreements that have already been completed are ranked in the following list along with their anticipated completion dates.

The salary ceiling is anticipated to increase by 10% from $140.6 million to $154.6 million, with the NBA’s new television agreement going into effect before the 2025–2026 season. A player may receive up to $2244.2 million over five seasons at a conventional maximum of 25% of the cap, or an estimated $38.7 million for 2025–2026. The maximum salary can increase to $46.4 million ($269.1 million total) if a player meets the qualifying requirements by winning MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, or an All-NBA team distinction. Five categories accounted for the rookie-scale extensions from last summer:

Potential “Supermax”: Only Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers) and Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) met the requirements, out of the three players that signed with the extra boost. Similar terms were agreed by LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets, although this season’s starting pay for him is $35.1 million, compared to $42.2 million for the other two. Near-Max: Although he will make $34 million this season, Memphis Grizzlies forward Desmond Bane has $1.1 million in improbable incentives that might equal Ball’s pay. Large: The next tier is represented by Devin Vassell of the San Antonio Spurs and Jaden McDaniels of the Timberwolves, who have rich five-year incentive contracts of $135–146 million and $131–136 million, respectively. Mid-Tier: The majority of the remaining extensions, which varied in length from three to four years, began close to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), which is now at $12.8 million. Isaiah Stewart II of the Detroit Pistons is one of them.

The largest deals usually close in July, while the remaining ones take many months to complete, with many being finished by the deadline. Limited free agency resulted from not all eligible players receiving extensions last year. In July, Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers), Patrick Williams (Chicago Bulls), and Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors) inked new deals. When looking over the list of players with outstanding contracts, keep in mind that some of them may not even play in the NBA this season. Others moved on to other clubs.

 

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